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1.
2022 IEEE Creative Communication and Innovative Technology, ICCIT 2022 ; 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-20236405

ABSTRACT

According to World Bank statistics in 2019, Indonesia ranked two in the average unemployment rate with 5.28% in South East Asia. Although the unemployment rate can be reduced by an equitable distribution of human resource empowerment and national development, the global pandemic COVID-19 made a major impact on increasing the rate of unemployment. This paper tests the spatial autocorrelation on the average unemployment in Indonesia using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Moran's I. The OLS method was used to examine the effects that affect the unemployment rate using an independent variable. In contrast, the Moran's I used to prove the existence of spatial effect on the level of movement in Indonesia. From the experiment, there are four variables that influence the unemployment rate by using the OLS modeling method. The Moran's I test showed a p-value = 0.006 with α = 0.05. Therefore, there is a spatial autocorrelation between provinces in Indonesia. In addition, the model is tested using the Variance Inflation Factor. The model showed a VIF score ¡10, therefore there is no collinearity and the assumption is fulfilled. The model is also being tested using dwtest, bptest, and Lilliefors test. The result showed p-value = 0.6231 for dwtest, p-value = 0.932 for bptest, and p-value = 0.08438 for Lilliefors test.. © 2022 IEEE.

2.
Philippine Journal of Science ; 152(3):897-917, 2023.
Article in English | Academic Search Complete | ID: covidwho-20233736

ABSTRACT

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the elderly and people with comorbidities are most vulnerable to COVID-19 infection. With this, the challenges and threats posed to the vulnerable population require targeted interventions. While public health surveillance methods had developed recent advances to meet users' information needs, the volume and complexity of infectious disease data had increased, resulting in increasing difficulty to facilitate risk communication with the public and for decision-makers to make informed measures to protect the public's health. Moreover, the implementation of COVID-19 spatiotemporal disease surveillance strategies specifically targeting the vulnerable population in the Davao Region had been previously unexplored. This paper investigated the COVID-19 incidence in the Davao Region from 03 Mar 2020, the earliest recorded date of onset, to 31 Aug 2021 using geospatial tools. The variables were visualized through choropleth maps and graduated symbols, and subsequently examined through spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis. Hotspots across the region were observed to be in high-density areas. These areas pose greater risks of infection due to the presence of a high concentration of cases. However, high case fatality rates were found in far-flung municipalities where access to COVID-19 healthcare facilities is a dilemma. In the COVID-19 setting and future disease outbreaks similar to COVID-19, results from this study may provide insights to government offices and other related agencies to improve healthcare systems and programs such as providing and initiating tailor-fitted isolation and consultation mechanisms appropriate to the vulnerable population in a community. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Philippine Journal of Science is the property of Science & Technology Information Institute and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

3.
Int J Biometeorol ; 67(4): 553-563, 2023 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2317973

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to investigate the geographical spatial distribution of creatine kinase isoenzyme (CK-MB) in order to provide a scientific basis for clinical examination. The reference values of CK-MB of 8697 healthy adults in 137 cities in China were collected by reading a large number of literates. Moran index was used to determine the spatial relationship, and 24 factors were selected, which belonged to terrain, climate, and soil indexes. Correlation analysis was conducted between CK-MB and geographical factors to determine significance, and 9 significance factors were extracted. Based on R language to evaluate the degree of multicollinearity of the model, CK-MB Ridge model, Lasso model, and PCA model were established, through calculating the relative error to choose the best model PCA, testing the normality of the predicted values, and choosing the disjunctive kriging interpolation to make the geographical distribution. The results show that CK-MB reference values of healthy adults were generally correlated with latitude, annual sunshine duration, annual mean relative humidity, annual precipitation amount, and annual range of air temperature and significantly correlated with annual mean air temperature, topsoil gravel content, topsoil cation exchange capacity in clay, and topsoil cation exchange capacity in silt. The geospatial distribution map shows that on the whole, it is higher in the north and lower in the south, and gradually increases from the southeast coastal area to the northwest inland area. If the geographical factors are obtained in a location, the CK-MB model can be used to predict the CK-MB of healthy adults in the region, which provides a reference for us to consider regional differences in clinical diagnosis.


Subject(s)
Climate , Isoenzymes , Adult , Humans , Reference Values , Soil , Creatine Kinase
4.
Advances in Geographic Information Science ; : 35-64, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2304731

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 has had a significant impact on the global economy. The retailing sector, which relies heavily on high levels of human interaction, has experienced the worst impact. This study aimed to assess the spatial distribution of COVID-19 in Toronto and its impact on business locations from the food retail and food service sectors by investigating four retailers: Starbucks, McDonald's, Shoppers Drug Mart, and Loblaws. Kernel density estimation revealed that the spatial distribution of COVID-19 incidences in the City of Toronto is uneven, with a high density of cases present in the Downtown core. Spatial autocorrelation was performed at the global and local levels to assess the spatial pattern of Starbucks, McDonald's, Shoppers Drug Mart, and Loblaws locations. The findings revealed that retailers spatially clustered in a COVID-19 hotspot are the most impacted. Further to this analysis, a geographically weighted regression model was generated, which indicated a strong correlation between COVID-19 and low socio-economic status. This allows for a better understanding of the characteristics associated with the retail locations at risk from COVID-19, enabling retailers to make strategic adjustments to respond to a rapidly changing marketplace. © 2023, Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

5.
56th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, HICSS 2023 ; 2023-January:5102-5111, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2303129

ABSTRACT

The digital divide in the United States has received renewed attention during the COVID-19 pandemic. As achievement of digital equity remains a high priority, this study examines spatial patterns and socioeconomic determinants of the purposeful use of mobile internet for personal and business needs in US states. Agglomerations of mobile internet use are identified using K-means clustering and the extent of agglomeration is measured using spatial autocorrelation analysis. Regression analysis reveals that mobile internet use is associated with employment in management, business, science, and arts occupations, affordability, age structure, and the extent of freedom in US states. Spatial randomness of regression residuals shows the effectiveness of the conceptual model to account for spatial bias. Implications of these findings are discussed. © 2023 IEEE Computer Society. All rights reserved.

6.
Cartography and Geographic Information Science ; 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2274369

ABSTRACT

Exploratory data analysis tools designed to measure global and local spatial autocorrelation (e.g. Moran's (Formula presented.) statistic) have become standard in modern GIS software. However, there has been little development in amending these tools for visualization and analysis of patterns captured in spatio-temporal data. We design and implement an exploratory mapping tool, VASA (Visual Analysis for Spatial Association), that streamlines analytical pipelines in assessing spatio-temporal structure of data and enables enhanced visual display of the patterns captured in data. Specifically, VASA applies a set of cartographic visual variables to map local measures of spatial autocorrelation and helps delineate micro and macro trends in space-time processes. Two visual displays are presented: recency and consistency map and line-scatter plots. The former combines spatial and temporal data view of local clusters, while the latter drills down on the temporal trends of the phenomena. As a case study, we demonstrate the usability of VASA for the investigation of mobility patterns in response to the COVID-19 pandemic throughout 2020 in the United States. Using daily county-level and grid-level mobility metrics obtained from three different sources (SafeGraph, Cuebiq, and Mapbox), we demonstrate cartographic functionality of VASA for a swift exploratory analysis and comparison of mobility trends at different regional scales. © 2023 Cartography and Geographic Information Society.

7.
CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources ; 2022(2022), 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2271947

ABSTRACT

In recent years, the global spread of communicable diseases such as Ebola and COVID-19 has stressed the need for clear, geographically targeted, and actionable public health recommendations at appropriate spatial scales. Country-level stakeholders are increasingly utilizing spatial data and spatial decision support systems to optimize resource allocation, and researchers have access to a growing library of spatial data, tools, and software. Application of spatial methods, however, varies widely between researchers, resulting in often unstandardized results, which may be difficult to compare across geographical settings. This literature review aims to compare epidemiological studies, which applies methods including spatial autocorrelation to describe, explain, or predict spatial patterns underlying infectious disease health outcomes, and to describe whether those studies provide clear recommendations.The results of our analysis show an increasing trend in the number of publications applying spatial analysis in epidemiological research per year, with COVID-19, tuberculosis and dengue predominantly studied (43% of n = 98 total articles), and a majority of publication coming from Asia (62%). Spatial autocorrelation was quantified in the majority of studies (72%), and 57 (58%) of articles include some form of statistical modeling of which 11 (19%) accounted for spatial autocorrelation in the model. Most studies (68%) provided some level of recommendation regarding how results should be interpreted for future research or policy development, however often using vague, cautious terms. We recommend the development of standards for spatial epidemiological methods and reporting, and for spatial epidemiological studies to more clearly propose how their findings support or challenge current public health practice. © CAB International 2022 (Online ISSN 1749-8848)

8.
Model Earth Syst Environ ; : 1-15, 2023 Feb 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2264037

ABSTRACT

Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic is a top-level public health concern. This paper attempts to identify the COVID-19 pandemic in Qom and Mazandaran provinces, Iran using spatial analysis approaches. This study was based on secondary data of confirmed cases and deaths from February 3, 2020, to late October 2021, in two Qom and Mazandaran provinces from hospitals and the website of the National Institute of Health. In this paper, three geographical models in ArcGIS 10.8.1 were utilized to analyze and evaluate COVID-19, including geographic weight regression (GWR), ordinary least squares (OLS), and spatial autocorrelation (Moran I). The results from this study indicate that the rate of scattering of confirmed cases for Qom province for the period was 44.25%, while the rate of dispersal of the deaths was 4.34%. Based on the GWR and OLS model, Moran's statistics demonstrated that confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered followed a clustering pattern during the study period. Moran's Z-score for all three indicators of confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered was confirmed to be greater than 2.5 (95% confidence level) for both GWR and OLS models. The spatial distribution of indicators of confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered based on the GWR model has been more scattered in the northwestern and southwestern cities of Qom province. Whereas the spatial distribution of the recoveries of the COVID-19 pandemic in Qom province was 61.7%, the central regions of this province had the highest spread of recoveries. The spatial spread of the COVID-19 pandemic from February 3, 2020, to October 2021 in Mazandaran province was 35.57%, of which 2.61% died, according to information published by the COVID-19 pandemic headquarters. Most confirmed cases and deaths are scattered in the north of this province. The ordinary least squares model results showed that the spatial dispersion of recovered people from the COVID-19 pandemic is more significant in the central and southern regions of Mazandaran province. The Z-score for the deaths Index is more significant than 14.314. The results obtained from this study and the information published by the National Headquarters for the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic showed that tourism and pilgrimages are possible factors for the spatial distribution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Qom and Mazandaran provinces. The spatial information obtained from these modeling approaches could provide general insights to authorities and researchers for further targeted investigations and policies in similar circumcises.

9.
J Air Transp Manag ; 109: 102382, 2023 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2269134

ABSTRACT

This research investigates the number of on-time flights (OTFs) at European airports and how this number is influenced by an airport's flight connectivity. We conduct a spatial statistical analysis of the spatial context relationship using econometric models, and the interaction between the number of airport's on-time flights (OTFs) and flight connectivity. Using 2017 and 2018 data, we characterize the relationship between a European airport's air connectivity index (ACI) and the number of flights that depart or arrive at a gate within 15 min of schedule (OTFs). We also analyze the relationship between OTFs at a given airport and those of neighboring airports. As the distances between airports increase, autocorrelation shifts from a positive to a negative sign meaning that at greater distances, airports' on-time performance is less dissimilar. We find that before the pandemic and the ensuing global travel shutdown, a spatially lagged term of ACI improves the model's ability to account for variations in OTFs across airports. Flight delay propagation in the air transport system caused delays to occur due to the shared resources underlying an initially delayed flight and subsequent flights. This analysis offers a rational for increasing airport connectivity as a way of improving the share of on-time flights of European airports.

10.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 2022 Nov 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2287448

ABSTRACT

To control the spread of COVID-19, the Chinese government announced a "lockdown" policy, and the citizens' activities were restricted. This study selected three standard air quality indexes, AQI, PM2.5, and PM10, of 2017-2021 in 40 major cities in six regions in China to analyze their changes, spatial-temporal distributions, and socioeconomic influencing factors. Compared with 2019, the values of AQI, PM2.5, and PM10 decreased, and the days with AQI levels "AQI ≤ 100" increased during the "lockdown" in 2020. Due to different degrees of industrialization, the concentration of air pollutants shows significant regional characteristics. The AQI values before and after the "lockdown" in 2020 show significant spatial autocorrelation, and the cities' AQI values in the north present high autocorrelation, and the cities in the south are in low autocorrelation. From the data at the national level, carbon emission intensity (CEI), per capita energy consumption (PEC), per capita GDP (PCG), industrialization rate (IR), and proportion of construction value added (PCVA) have the greatest impact on AQI. This study gives regulators confidence that if the government implements regionalized air quality improvement policies according to the characteristics of each region in China and reasonably plans socioeconomic activities, it is expected to improve China's air quality sustainably.

11.
2nd IEEE International Conference on Data Science and Computer Application, ICDSCA 2022 ; : 667-672, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2213252

ABSTRACT

To analyze the epidemiological and distribution characteristics of COVID-19 in the United States from 2020.1 to 2021.8, which can provide scientific basis for the formulation of epidemic prevention measures. The incidence data of COVID-19 epidemic from 2020.1-2021.8 in the United States were collected for analysis, the spatial autocorrelation was analyzed by using Geoda 1.18.0, SaTScan 10.0 was used to conduct spatial scan statistics, and ArcGIS 10.4 were used to visualize. As of August 26, 2021, the epidemic in the United States is still in a state of high-speed transmission, and the number of cases is concentrated from November 2020 to February 2021 and August 2021;From the perspective of global spatial autocorrelation, COVID-19 in the United States has a high spatial aggregation, and the geographical spatial adjacency of each region has the greatest influence on the intensity of disease aggregation. According to the local spatial self-analysis, most of the agglomerations were in high-high and low-low clusters, and the high-high cluster states showed a patchy distribution, and experienced an increase-decrease-increase in number. According to the spatio-temporal scanning statistics, there were four clusters, of which the first cluster was located in the southeastern United States. In terms of t the mean center of infection, the epidemic moved greatly in the early stage and stabilized in the southeastern part of the United States in the later stage. COVID-19 in the United States has strong aggregation and changes over time. The focus of prevention and control is the southeast of the United States, and the focus of prevention and control is to reduce the population movement of adjacent states. © 2022 IEEE.

12.
Indian Journal of Public Health Research and Development ; 14(1):323-330, 2023.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-2206455

ABSTRACT

East Java Province has the fourth-highest number of COVID-19 cases among all other provinces Indonesia. This study aimed to examine the spatial effect on confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the risk factors. Data were analyzed using Geoda software to obtain Global Moran's Index and Local Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) and QGIS 2.8.1 software to make a map. Moran's I scatter plots also used to exploring the bivariate association between COVID-19 cases and potential predictors. The Global Moran's I statistics value shows spatial clustering in COVID-19 cases across the municipalities of East Java Province (Moran's I=0.3986). A positive spatial autocorrelation was observed between COVID-19 cases and population density (Moran's I = 0.2059), vaccination coverage (Moran's I = 0.322), the number of laboratories (Moran's I = 0.2322), ratio of health worker (Moran's I = 0.1617), and household (Moran's I = 0.0866). In comparison, a negative spatial correlation was observed between COVID-19 cases and The Enforcement of Restrictions on Community Activities' levels (Moran's I =-0,2420), average number of family member (Moran's I = 0.0115). The LISA cluster map shows that there were 3 hot spots (Surabaya, Gresik, and Sidoarjo) and 3 cold spots (Sampang, Pamekasan, and Sumenep). Copyright © 2023, Institute of Medico-legal Publication. All rights reserved.

13.
29th International Conference on Geoinformatics, Geoinformatics 2022 ; 2022-August, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2191793

ABSTRACT

Mexico is one of the countries worst affected by the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Analyzing the spatiotemporal spread processes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico is of great significance in terms of preventing its further transmission. This study obtained COVID-19 cases and deaths at the municipality level in Mexico from February 28, 2020, to February 27, 2022, and adopted Hoover index, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and epidemic center calculation to reveal the spatio-temporal pattern of the pandemic nationwide. The results showed that the COVID-19 outbreak in Mexico experienced an initial low-level transmission and four concentrated outbreaks. In terms of spatial transmission pattern, COVID-19 cases showed clear spatial clustering characteristics (Moran's I: 0.48), and large cities with more social interactions (such as Mexico City, Guadalajara, etc.) were most affected. In terms of the directional characteristics of the COVID-19 impact, the epidemiological center constantly shifted in the northeast-southwest direction due to the changing severity of the epidemic in the northwestern coast and the central part of Mexico during the initial outbreak phase. Accordingly, the centers of the three subsequent outbreaks moved to the southeast, northwest, and southeast. The COVID-19 epidemic spread very rapidly in Mexico, especially in the second phase. In the four concentrated outbreaks, the time for the distribution of cases to form a relatively stable spatial pattern was 99 days, 15 days, 95 days, and 42 days, respectively. But the difference of transmission rate at the state level is significant. The state with earlier outbreaks, such as Mexico City, spreads faster. This study revealed the characteristics and laws of the spread of infectious diseases at the national scale, and provided a reference for the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic and future emerging infectious diseases. © 2022 IEEE.

14.
Biomedicines ; 10(10)2022 Oct 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2065699

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic modified the management of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke. We aimed to evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volume and spatial distribution of hospitalizations for MI and stroke, before, during and after the first nationwide lockdown in France in 2020, compared with 2019. Hospitalization data were extracted from the French National Discharge database. Patient's characteristics were compared according to COVID-19 status. Changes in hospitalization rates over time were measured using interrupted time series analysis. Possible spatial patterns of over or under-hospitalization rates were investigated using Moran's indices. We observed a rapid and significant drop in hospitalizations just before the beginning of the lockdown with a nadir at 36.5% for MI and 31.2% for stroke. Hospitalization volumes returned to those seen in 2019 four weeks after the end of the lockdown, except for MI, which rebounded excessively. Older age, male sex, elevated rate of hypertension, diabetes, obesity and mortality characterized COVID-19 patients. There was no evidence of a change in the spatial pattern of over- or under-hospitalization clusters over the three periods. After a steep drop, only MI showed a significant rebound after the first lockdown with no change in the spatial distribution of hospitalizations.

15.
14th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar, ATM 2021 ; 2021.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2011179

ABSTRACT

This paper develops models to quantify the dynamics of the impact of air travel on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, using a wide range of datasets covering the period from March to December 2020. With the help of flight operation data, we first develop a novel approach to estimate the county-level daily air passenger traffic, which combines passenger load factor estimates and information about the air traffic distribution. Cross-sectional models using aggregated county-level variables are estimated. While this study focuses on air travel variables, we also control for potential spatial autocorrelation and other relevant covariates, including vehicle miles traveled (VMT), road network connectivity, demographic characteristics, and climate. The model results indicate that air travel has a strong and positive impact on the initial pandemic growth rate for both case-based and fatality-based aggregate models. © ATM 2021. All rights reserved.

16.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 19(15)2022 07 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1969240

ABSTRACT

At present, COVID-19 is still spreading, and its transmission patterns and the main factors that affect transmission behavior still need to be thoroughly explored. To this end, this study collected the cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China by 8 April 2020. Firstly, the spatial characteristics of the COVID-19 transmission were investigated by the spatial autocorrelation method. Then, the factors affecting the COVID-19 incidence rates were analyzed by the generalized linear mixed effect model (GLMMs) and geographically weighted regression model (GWR). Finally, the geological detector (GeoDetector) was introduced to explore the influence of interactive effects between factors on the COVID-19 incidence rates. The results showed that: (1) COVID-19 had obvious spatial aggregation. (2) The control measures had the largest impact on the COVID-19 incidence rates, which can explain the difference of 34.2% in the COVID-19 incidence rates, while meteorological factors and pollutant factors can only explain the difference of 1% in the COVID-19 incidence rates. It explains that some of the literature overestimates the impact of meteorological factors on the spread of the epidemic. (3) The influence of meteorological factors was stronger than that of air pollution factors, and the interactive effects between factors were stronger than their individual effects. The interaction between relative humidity and NO2 was stronger. The results of this study will provide a reference for further prevention and control of COVID-19.


Subject(s)
Air Pollutants , Air Pollution , COVID-19 , Air Pollutants/analysis , Air Pollution/analysis , COVID-19/epidemiology , China/epidemiology , Humans , Meteorological Concepts , Particulate Matter/analysis , Spatial Regression
17.
Regional Statistics ; : 36, 2022.
Article in English | English Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1884781

ABSTRACT

Covid-19 regional percent of cases is one of the regional variables that dynamically interact across space and time. It exhibits a time trend, and at one point in time, it may form clusters of regions with similar values. Since Covid-19 is an infectious disease, the regional percent of cases also exhibits spatial dependence across regions. The time trend indicates the possible time lag of the spatial dependence, and the spatial dependence analysed at one point in time may be undetected. This situation was observed in the 38 regions of East Java. It gives an incorrect impression of the nature of spatial dependence, leading to an improper policy formulation. To capture the spatial interaction more accurately, this study accommodates the time-dependent dynamic nature of the variable into the formulation of the Moran's I index for a set of spatial panel data. A simulation study is conducted to confirm the accuracy of the proposed index, especially when the degree of contemporaneous spatial autocorrelation is high. The proposed index also succeeds in detecting the time-lagged spatial autocorrelation of East Java's Covid-19 regional percent of cases. It provides a better understanding and policy recommendations regarding the spread of this disease in this province.

18.
Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol ; 41: 100500, 2022 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1852105

ABSTRACT

The SARS-Cov-2 has spread differently over space and time worldwide. By monitoring the contagion's time evolution, the November 3 2020 the Italian government introduced differentiated regime of restrictions among its regions. This experiment demonstrated that public health policies can be effectively designed by means of clustering. This paper proposes a fuzzy clustering model where spatial and temporal dimensions of the disease spread are optimally weighted. The resulting model is applied with the aim of identifying groups of Italian regions with similar contagion spread. We found that two groups of regions sharing similar patterns of COVID-19 spread over both space and time exist. Appropriate public health policies can be designed on the basis of this evidence.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cluster Analysis , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2
19.
Nonlinear Dyn ; 107(3): 3085-3109, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1813775

ABSTRACT

Since the earliest outbreak of COVID-19, the disease continues to obstruct life normalcy in many parts of the world. The present work proposes a mathematical framework to improve non-pharmaceutical interventions during the new normal before vaccination settles herd immunity. The considered approach is built from the viewpoint of decision makers in developing countries where resources to tackle the disease from both a medical and an economic perspective are scarce. Spatial auto-correlation analysis via global Moran's index and Moran's scatter is presented to help modulate decisions on hierarchical-based priority for healthcare capacity and interventions (including possible vaccination), finding a route for the corresponding deployment as well as landmarks for appropriate border controls. These clustering tools are applied to sample data from Sri Lanka to classify the 26 Regional Director of Health Services (RDHS) divisions into four clusters by introducing convenient classification criteria. A metapopulation model is then used to evaluate the intra- and inter-cluster contact restrictions as well as testing campaigns under the absence of confounding factors. Furthermore, we investigate the role of the basic reproduction number to determine the long-term trend of the regressing solution around disease-free and endemic equilibria. This includes an analytical bifurcation study around the basic reproduction number using Brouwer Degree Theory and asymptotic expansions as well as related numerical investigations based on path-following techniques. We also introduce the notion of average policy effect to assess the effectivity of contact restrictions and testing campaigns based on the proposed model's transient behavior within a fixed time window of interest.

20.
Información Tecnológica ; 33(2):67-75, 2022.
Article in Spanish | Academic Search Complete | ID: covidwho-1789511

ABSTRACT

The main objective of the present study was to examine the spatial association between COVID-19 cases and condensable particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) and to assess the impact of population density, the green index, and the number of health care institutions in Bogotá (Colombia). The global (MI) and local (LISA) Moran indices were applied to conduct spatial association analyses. The SHAP-value method was applied to assess impact. The results revealed a moderate positive spatial autocorrelation (MI = 0.303) for PM10 and a weak correlation (MI = 0.159) for PM2.5. The LISA index showed that high-high associations between PMs and COVID-19 cases occurred in the southwest of Bogota while low-low associations occurred in the northeast. The variables that had the most impact were, in order, population density, number of health care institutions, and PM10. It is concluded that there is evidence of a spatial autocorrelation between both PM10 and PM2.5 and COVID-19 cases, especially for PM10. (English) [ FROM AUTHOR] El objetivo de este estudio fue determinar la asociación espacial entre casos de COVID-19 y la concentración de material particulado (PM10 y PM2.5) y estimar el impacto de la densidad poblacional, el índice verde, y el número de centros de salud en Bogotá (Colombia). Se emplearon los índices global (IM) y local (LISA) de Moran para determinar la asociación espacial y se aplicó el método SHAP para estimar el impacto. Los resultados revelaron una autocorrelación espacial positiva moderada (IM=0.303) para el PM10 y débil (IM=0.159) para el PM2.5. Según el LISA, las asociaciones alto–alto de PM y el número de casos COVID-19 se presentaron en el suroccidente de la ciudad de Bogotá y las bajo–bajo en el nororiente. Las variables que más impactaron fueron, en orden, densidad poblacional, números de centros de salud y CPM10. Se concluye que existe una autocorrelación espacial entre PM10 y PM2.5 y el número de casos COVID-19, especialmente con el PM10. (Spanish) [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Información Tecnológica is the property of Centro de Informacion Tecnologica (CIT) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

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